An epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with self-adaptive containment measures.

Autor: Marchetti S; Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy, Rome, Italy., Borin A; Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy, Rome, Italy., Conteduca FP; Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy, Rome, Italy., Ilardi G; Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy, Rome, Italy., Guzzetta G; Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation (FBK), Trento, Italy., Poletti P; Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation (FBK), Trento, Italy., Pezzotti P; Department of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità), Rome, Italy., Bella A; Department of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità), Rome, Italy., Stefanelli P; Department of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità), Rome, Italy., Riccardo F; Department of Infectious Diseases, Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità), Rome, Italy., Merler S; Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation (FBK), Trento, Italy., Brandolini A; Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy, Rome, Italy., Brusaferro S; Italian National Institute of Health (Istituto Superiore di Sanità), Rome, Italy.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2022 Jul 25; Vol. 17 (7), pp. e0272009. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jul 25 (Print Publication: 2022).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272009
Abstrakt: During the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries have resorted to self-adaptive mechanisms that tailor non-pharmaceutical interventions to local epidemiological and health care indicators. These mechanisms reinforce the mutual influence between containment measures and the evolution of the epidemic. To account for such interplay, we develop an epidemiological model that embeds an algorithm mimicking the self-adaptive policy mechanism effective in Italy between November 2020 and March 2022. This extension is key to tracking the historical evolution of health outcomes and restrictions in Italy. Focusing on the epidemic wave that started in mid-2021 after the diffusion of Delta, we compare the functioning of alternative mechanisms to show how the policy framework may affect the trade-off between health outcomes and the restrictiveness of mitigation measures. Mechanisms based on the reproduction number are generally highly responsive to early signs of a surging wave but entail severe restrictions. The emerging trade-off varies considerably depending on specific conditions (e.g., vaccination coverage), with less-reactive mechanisms (e.g., those based on occupancy rates) becoming more appealing in favorable contexts.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:
Nepřihlášeným uživatelům se plný text nezobrazuje