| Autor: |
Wilson JD; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom., Andrews O; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom., Katavouta A; National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool L3 5DA, United Kingdom.; Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GP, United Kingdom., de Melo Viríssimo F; National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom.; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 3PH, United Kingdom., Death RM; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom., Adloff M; School for Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, United Kingdom., Baker CA; National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom., Blackledge B; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom., Goldsworth FW; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PU, United Kingdom., Kennedy-Asser AT; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom., Liu Q; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom., Sieradzan KR; School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor LL57 2DG, United Kingdom., Vosper E; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, United Kingdom., Ying R; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom. |
| Abstrakt: |
The biological carbon pump (BCP) stores ∼1,700 Pg C from the atmosphere in the ocean interior, but the magnitude and direction of future changes in carbon sequestration by the BCP are uncertain. We quantify global trends in export production, sinking organic carbon fluxes, and sequestered carbon in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) future projections, finding a consistent 19 to 48 Pg C increase in carbon sequestration over the 21st century for the SSP3-7.0 scenario, equivalent to 5 to 17% of the total increase of carbon in the ocean by 2100. This is in contrast to a global decrease in export production of -0.15 to -1.44 Pg C y -1 . However, there is significant uncertainty in the modeled future fluxes of organic carbon to the deep ocean associated with a range of different processes resolved across models. We demonstrate that organic carbon fluxes at 1,000 m are a good predictor of long-term carbon sequestration and suggest this is an important metric of the BCP that should be prioritized in future model studies. |
