Results of the Cologne Corona surveillance (CoCoS) study - a prospective population-based cohort study: incidence data and potential underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 adult infections by health authorities.

Autor: Oberste M; Institute of Medical Statistics and Computational Biology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Robert-Koch-Straße 10, 50931, Cologne, Germany., Pusch LM; Institute of Medical Statistics and Computational Biology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Robert-Koch-Straße 10, 50931, Cologne, Germany., Roth R; Institute of Medical Statistics and Computational Biology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Robert-Koch-Straße 10, 50931, Cologne, Germany., Shah-Hosseini K; Institute of Medical Statistics and Computational Biology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Robert-Koch-Straße 10, 50931, Cologne, Germany., Schmitz J; Institute of Virology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Fürst-Pückler-Straße 56, 50935, Cologne, Germany., Heger E; Institute of Virology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Fürst-Pückler-Straße 56, 50935, Cologne, Germany., Dewald F; Institute of Virology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Fürst-Pückler-Straße 56, 50935, Cologne, Germany., Müller C; Institute of Virology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Fürst-Pückler-Straße 56, 50935, Cologne, Germany., von Goltzheim LS; Institute of Medical Statistics and Computational Biology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Robert-Koch-Straße 10, 50931, Cologne, Germany., Lehmann C; Department of Internal Medicine, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 62, 50931, Cologne, Germany., Buess M; Cologne Health Authority, Cologne, Germany., Wolff A; Cologne Health Authority, Cologne, Germany., Fätkenheuer G; Department of Internal Medicine, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Kerpener Str. 62, 50931, Cologne, Germany., Wiesmüller G; Cologne Health Authority, Cologne, Germany., Klein F; Institute of Virology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Fürst-Pückler-Straße 56, 50935, Cologne, Germany., Rosenberger KD; Institute of Medical Statistics and Computational Biology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Robert-Koch-Straße 10, 50931, Cologne, Germany., Neuhann F; Cologne Health Authority, Cologne, Germany.; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.; School of Medicine and Clinical Sciences, Levy Mwanawasa Medical University, Lusaka, Zambia., Hellmich M; Institute of Medical Statistics and Computational Biology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Cologne, University of Cologne, Robert-Koch-Straße 10, 50931, Cologne, Germany. martin.hellmich@uni-koeln.de.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: BMC public health [BMC Public Health] 2022 Jul 19; Vol. 22 (1), pp. 1379. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jul 19.
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13745-1
Abstrakt: Background: Current incidence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany rely to a large extent on case notifications. However, the large number of mild or asymptomatic infections is likely to result in underestimation. Population-based studies can provide valid estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 incidence and thus support health authorities to monitor the epidemiological situation and to initiate, maintain, strengthen or relax effective countermeasures.
Methods: This study was conducted in Cologne, Germany. Six-thousand randomly drawn Cologne residents, 18 years of age or older, were contacted by mail in March 2021. Study envelopes contained a kit for self-administered saliva sample and access details to a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics, previous positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR and completed COVID-19 vaccinations. Participants were again invited for a second round in June 2021, while those who declined participation were replaced by additional randomly drawn Cologne residents in order to reach a total of 6000 potential participants again. The saliva samples were sent to the laboratory by mail and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. The incidence estimates were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of the test procedure and compared with the official numbers of new SARS-CoV-2 cases in the adult Cologne population.
Results: The first surveillance round in March 2021 (response rate: 34.08%, N = 2045) showed a SARS-CoV-2 seven-day incidence of 85 cases per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 9 to 319). In the same period, the officially registered cases were 125 per 100,000. The second surveillance round in June 2021 (response rate: 36.53%, N = 2192) showed a seven-day incidence of 27 per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 1 to 142), while the official figures for newly registered SARS-CoV-2 cases in the same period were 15 per 100,000.
Conclusions: The incidence estimates do not indicate relevant underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 infections based on case notification. Regular use of the surveillance method developed here may nevertheless complement the efforts of the health authorities to assess the epidemiological situation.
Trial Registration: DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046 , Registered on 25 February 2021.
(© 2022. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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