Early human judgment forecasts of human monkeypox, May 2022.

Autor: McAndrew T; Department of Community and Population Health, College of Health, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015, USA. Electronic address: mcandrew@lehigh.edu., Majumder MS; Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA., Lover AA; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA., Venkatramanan S; Biocomplexity Institute and Initiative, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA., Bocchini P; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, P C Rossin College of Engineering and Applied Science, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015, USA., Besiroglu T; MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Cambridge, MA, USA; Metaculus, Santa Cruz, CA, USA., Codi A; Department of Community and Population Health, College of Health, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015, USA., Braun D; Department of Psychology, College of Arts and Sciences, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA 18015, USA., Dempsey G; Metaculus, Santa Cruz, CA, USA., Abbott S; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Chevalier S; Metaculus, Santa Cruz, CA, USA., Bosse NI; Metaculus, Santa Cruz, CA, USA; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Cambeiro J; Metaculus, Santa Cruz, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The Lancet. Digital health [Lancet Digit Health] 2022 Aug; Vol. 4 (8), pp. e569-e571. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jul 07.
DOI: 10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00127-3
Abstrakt: Competing Interests: MSM has been awarded funds from the National Science Foundation and Boston Children's Hospital. TB is an advisor to Metaculus and holds stock options with Metaculus. SV has been awarded funds from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists, Virginia Department of Health, National Science Foundation, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and the University of Pittsburgh. GD holds leadership and board roles at Metaculus, which is the public benefit corporation that develops the forecasting platform used to elicit forecasts in this Comment. All other authors declare no competing interests. We would like to thank all individuals who dedicated their time and energy to submitting probabilistic forecasts of the transmission and burden of the monkeypox virus. The forecasting data used to generate figures in this Comment are available on GitHub. Real time forecasts are available on the Metaculus website. Because no personal information about forecasters was collected for this work, we determined, in consultation with an international review board analyst, that this study should not be considered Human Subjects Research.
Databáze: MEDLINE