The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change.

Autor: Satoh Y; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan. yusuke.satoh@kaist.ac.kr.; Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Korea. yusuke.satoh@kaist.ac.kr.; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. yusuke.satoh@kaist.ac.kr., Yoshimura K; Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan., Pokhrel Y; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, Michigan, USA., Kim H; Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Korea.; Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Korea., Shiogama H; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan., Yokohata T; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan., Hanasaki N; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan., Wada Y; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.; Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands., Burek P; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria., Byers E; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria., Schmied HM; Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.; Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany., Gerten D; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.; Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany., Ostberg S; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany., Gosling SN; School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK., Boulange JES; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan., Oki T; Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2022 Jun 28; Vol. 13 (1), pp. 3287. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jun 28.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30729-2
Abstrakt: Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.
(© 2022. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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