Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.

Autor:	Truelove S; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States., Smith CP; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States., Qin M; Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States., Mullany LC; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States.; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States., Borchering RK; Pennsylvania State University, University Park, United States., Lessler J; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, United States., Shea K; Pennsylvania State University, University Park, United States., Howerton E; Pennsylvania State University, University Park, United States., Contamin L; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, United States., Levander J; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, United States., Kerr J; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, United States., Hochheiser H; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, United States., Kinsey M; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States., Tallaksen K; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States., Wilson S; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States., Shin L; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States., Rainwater-Lovett K; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, United States., Lemairtre JC; École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland., Dent J; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States., Kaminsky J; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States., Lee EC; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States., Perez-Saez J; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States., Hill A; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States., Karlen D; University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada., Chinazzi M; Northeastern University, Boston, United States., Davis JT; Northeastern University, Boston, United States., Mu K; Northeastern University, Boston, United States., Xiong X; Northeastern University, Boston, United States., Pastore Y Piontti A; Northeastern University, Boston, United States., Vespignani A; Northeastern University, Boston, United States., Srivastava A; University of Southern California, Los Angeles, United States., Porebski P; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Venkatramanan S; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Adiga A; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Lewis B; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Klahn B; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Outten J; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Orr M; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Harrison G; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Hurt B; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Chen J; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Vullikanti A; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Marathe M; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Hoops S; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Bhattacharya P; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Machi D; University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States., Chen S; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, United States., Paul R; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, United States., Janies D; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, United States., Thill JC; University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, United States., Galanti M; Columbia University, New York, United States., Yamana TK; Columbia University, New York, United States., Pei S; Columbia University, New York, United States., Shaman JL; Columbia University, New York, United States., Healy JM; CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, United States., Slayton RB; CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, United States., Biggerstaff M; CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, United States., Johansson MA; CDC COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, United States., Runge MC; United States Geological Survey, Laurel, United States., Viboud C; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	ELife [Elife] 2022 Jun 21; Vol. 11. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jun 21.
DOI:	10.7554/eLife.73584
Abstrakt:	In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model. Competing Interests: ST, CS, MQ, LM, RB, KS, EH, LC, JL, JK, HH, MK, KT, SW, LS, KR, JL, JD, JK, EL, JP, AH, DK, MC, JD, KM, XX, AP, AV, AS, PP, SV, AA, BL, BK, JO, MO, GH, BH, JC, AV, MM, SH, PB, DM, SC, RP, DJ, JT, MG, TY, SP, JH, RS, MB, MJ, CV No competing interests declared, JL has served as an expert witness on cases where the likely length of the pandemic was of issue, JS and Columbia University disclose partial ownership of SK Analytics. Discloses consulting for BNI, MR reports stock ownership in Becton Dickinson & Co, which manufactures medical equipment used in COVID testing, vaccination, and treatment
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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