Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil.

Autor:	Ferreira HDS; Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, Recife, PE, Brasil., Nóbrega RS; Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, Recife, PE, Brasil.; Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, Unidade Acadêmica de Geografia, Campina Grande, PB, Brasil., Brito PVDS; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Computação Aplicada, São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil., Farias JP; Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia, Programa Multicêntrico de Pós-Graduação em Bioquímica e Biologia Molecular, Barreias, BA, Brasil., Amorim JH; Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia, Programa Multicêntrico de Pós-Graduação em Bioquímica e Biologia Molecular, Barreias, BA, Brasil.; Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia e Biotecnologia de Microrganismos, Ilhéus, BA, Brasil., Moreira EBM; Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia, Centro das Humanidades, Barreiras, BA, Brasil., Mendez ÉC; Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia e Biotecnologia de Microrganismos, Ilhéus, BA, Brasil., Luiz WB; Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia e Biotecnologia de Microrganismos, Ilhéus, BA, Brasil.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical [Rev Soc Bras Med Trop] 2022 Jun 06; Vol. 55, pp. e0671. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jun 06 (Print Publication: 2022).
DOI:	10.1590/0037-8682-0671-2021
Abstrakt:	Background: This research addresses two questions: (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity. Methods: Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence. Results: Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle. Conclusion: ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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