Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic with combined effects of relapse, reinfection and environmental contribution: A modeling analysis.

Autor:	Musa SS; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.; Department of Mathematics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria., Yusuf A; Department of Computer Engineering, Biruni University, Istanbul, Turkey.; Department of Mathematics, Science Faculty, Federal University Dutse, Jigawa, Nigeria., Zhao S; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China., Abdullahi ZU; Department of Biological Sciences, Federal University Dutsin-Ma, Katsina, Nigeria., Abu-Odah H; School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.; Nursing and Health Sciences Department, University College of Applied Sciences, Gaza, Palestine., Saad FT; Department of Mathematics, Yusuf Maitama Sule University, Kano, Nigeria., Adamu L; Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Maiduguri, Nigeria., He D; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Results in physics [Results Phys] 2022 Jul; Vol. 38, pp. 105653. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 May 29.
DOI:	10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105653
Abstrakt:	Reinfection and reactivation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have recently raised public health pressing concerns in the fight against the current pandemic globally. In this study, we propose a new dynamic model to study the transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The model incorporates possible relapse, reinfection and environmental contribution to assess the combined effects on the overall transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model's local asymptotic stability is analyzed qualitatively. We derive the formula for the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) and final size epidemic relation, which are vital epidemiological quantities that are used to reveal disease transmission status and guide control strategies. Furthermore, the model is validated using the COVID-19 reported situations in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is examined by implementing a partial rank correlation coefficient technique to obtain the ultimate rank model parameters to control or mitigate the pandemic effectively. Finally, we employ a standard Euler technique for numerical simulations of the model to elucidate the influence of some crucial parameters on the overall transmission dynamics. Our results highlight that contact rate, hospitalization rate, and reactivation rate are the fundamental parameters that need particular emphasis for the prevention, mitigation and control. Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. (© 2022 The Author(s).)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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