Modelling changes in healthcare demand through geographic data extrapolation.
| Autor: | Palmer GI; School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, Senghennydd Road,Cardiff, United Kingdom., Harper P; School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, Senghennydd Road,Cardiff, United Kingdom., Knight V; School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, Senghennydd Road,Cardiff, United Kingdom., Brooks C; Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, St Cadoc's Hospita, Lodge Road, Caerleon, Wales. |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Zdroj: | Health systems (Basingstoke, England) [Health Syst (Basingstoke)] 2021 May 02; Vol. 11 (2), pp. 109-125. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 May 02 (Print Publication: 2022). |
| DOI: | 10.1080/20476965.2021.1906764 |
| Abstrakt: | Stay Well Plans are a new programme of care offered to frail and elderly people in Newport. In 2016 a roll out the programme to be offered in all five counties serviced by Aneurin Bevan University Health Board was planned. This paper presents the data analysis and modelling used to determine the programme's effects on the demand of the wider system, and the effects of a Gwent-wide roll out. We extrapolate information from data from a geographical subset of the model domain to a larger geographical area, adjusting for population sizes, deprivation, and distances to healthcare facilities. These parametrise a Markov model and Monte Carlo simulation to predict changes in demand due to different levels of roll out. We conclude that a programme roll out may result in a large reduction on demand at residential care, however at the expense of an increase in demand at community care services. Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s). (© Operational Research Society 2021.) |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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