Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming.

Autor: Wolkovich EM; Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.; Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA.; Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA., Chamberlain CJ; Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA.; Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA., Buonaiuto DM; Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA.; Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA., Ettinger AK; The Nature Conservancy, 74 Wall Street, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA., Morales-Castilla I; Department of Life Sciences, Global Change Ecology and Evolution Group, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, 28805, Spain.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: The New phytologist [New Phytol] 2022 Sep; Vol. 235 (5), pp. 1719-1728. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jun 27.
DOI: 10.1111/nph.18269
Abstrakt: Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4-6 d °C -1 on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades - failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming. The main hypothesis for these changing trends is that interactions between spring phenological cues - long-documented in laboratory environments - are playing a greater role in natural environments due to climate change. Here, we argue that accurately linking shifts observed in long-term data to underlying phenological cues is slowed by biases in observational studies and limited integration of insights from laboratory studies. We synthesize seven decades of laboratory experiments to quantify how phenological cue-space has been studied and how treatments compare with shifts caused by climate change. Most studies focus on one cue, limiting our ability to make accurate predictions, but some well-studied forest species offer opportunities to advance forecasting. We outline how greater integration of controlled-environment studies with long-term data could drive a new generation of laboratory experiments, built on physiological insights, that would transform our fundamental understanding of phenology and improve predictions.
(© 2022 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2022 New Phytologist Foundation.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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