Projected impact of change in the percentage of energy from each NOVA group intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil: a modelling study.

Autor:	Vasconcelos Leitão Moreira P; Department of Nutrition, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil patriciamoreira1111@hotmail.com., da Costa Pereira de Arruda Neta A; Department of Nutrition, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., Leite de Lima Ferreira FE; Department of Nutrition, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., de Araújo JM; Department of Economy, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., da Costa Louzada ML; Department of Nutrition, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil., Lira Formiga Cavalcanti de Lima R; Department of Nutrition, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., Pinheiro de Toledo Vianna R; Department of Nutrition, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., Moreira da Silva Neto J; Technical School of Health, Paraíba Federal University, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil., Colombet Z; Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK., O'Flaherty M; Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	BMJ open [BMJ Open] 2022 Apr 26; Vol. 12 (4), pp. e057953. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Apr 26.
DOI:	10.1136/bmjopen-2021-057953
Abstrakt:	Objective: Estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality achievable through improvement in nutrient intakes according to processing level (NOVA classification), that is, reducing consumption of culinary ingredients (G2), processed (G3) and ultra-processed foods (G4) while encouraging consumption of unprocessed and minimally processed foods (G1). Design: Modelling study. Setting: General adult population of Brazil. Participants: Men and women aged 25 or more years (34 003) investigated in the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018, in the consumption data module. Main Outcome Measures: We used the IMPACT Food Policy Model to estimate the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) up to 2048 in five scenarios with reductions in saturated fat, trans fat, salt and added sugar intakes resulting from changes in NOVA groups. (1) The optimistic scenario modelised an increase in the energy intake provided by G1 and a reduction in the energy intake from G2, G3 and G4, return to previous levels. (2) The minimal scenario modelised a 3.7% increase in the energy intake from G1, and a reduction in the energy intake from G4 to the 2008-2009 level. (3) The modest scenario only modelised a 25.0% reduction of the energy intake from G2 and G3. (4) The intermediary scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2. (5) Finally, the advanced scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2 and G3. Results: Proposed changes in the optimistic scenario could prevent or delay 52.8% CVD-related deaths by 2048. Changes modelled in the minimal, modest, intermediary and advanced scenarios may result in a 10.1%, 28.4%, 31.4% and 38.6% reduction in 2048 CVD mortality, respectively. Conclusions: Substantial health gains can be achieved by improving the diet, through plausible modifications aimed at the level of processing as a tool for Brazilian food policies. Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared. (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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