Modified SIQR model for the COVID-19 outbreak in several countries.

Autor: Pinto CMA; School of Engineering Polytechnic of Porto Rua Dr António Bernardino de Almeida, 431 Porto 4249-015 Portugal.; Centre for Mathematics University of Porto Portugal., Tenreiro Machado JA; School of Engineering Polytechnic of Porto Rua Dr António Bernardino de Almeida, 431 Porto 4249-015 Portugal., Burgos-Simón C; Institute of Multidisciplinary Mathematics Valencia Spain.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Mathematical methods in the applied sciences [Math Methods Appl Sci] 2022 Jan 17. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jan 17.
DOI: 10.1002/mma.8082
Abstrakt: In this paper, we propose a modified Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovered (mSIQR) model, for the COVID-19 pandemic. We start by proving the well-posedness of the model and then compute its reproduction number and the corresponding sensitivity indices. We discuss the values of these indices for epidemiological relevant parameters, namely, the contact rate, the proportion of unknown infectious, and the recovering rate. The mSIQR model is simulated, and the outputs are fit to COVID-19 pandemic data from several countries, including France, US, UK, and Portugal. We discuss the epidemiological relevance of the results and provide insights on future patterns, subjected to health policies.
Competing Interests: This work does not have any conflict of interest.
(© 2022 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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