Environmental factors and mobility predict COVID-19 seasonality in the Netherlands.

Autor: Hoogeveen MJ; Department Technical Sciences & Environment, Open University, the Netherlands. Electronic address: martijn.hoogeveen@icecat.com., Kroes ACM; Department of Medical Microbiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands., Hoogeveen EK; Department of Internal Medicine, Jeroen Bosch Hospital, Den Bosch, the Netherlands.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Environmental research [Environ Res] 2022 Aug; Vol. 211, pp. 113030. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Mar 04.
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113030
Abstrakt: Background: We recently showed that seasonal patterns of COVID-19 incidence and Influenza-Like Illnesses incidence are highly similar, in a country in the temperate climate zone, such as the Netherlands. We hypothesize that in The Netherlands the same environmental factors and mobility trends that are associated with the seasonality of flu-like illnesses are predictors of COVID-19 seasonality as well.
Methods: We used meteorological, pollen/hay fever and mobility data from the Netherlands. For the reproduction number of COVID-19 (R t ), we used daily estimates from the Dutch State Institute for Public Health. For all datasets, we selected the overlapping period of COVID-19 and the first allergy season: from February 17, 2020 till September 21, 2020 (n = 218). Backward stepwise multiple linear regression was used to develop an environmental prediction model of the R t of COVID-19. Next, we studied whether adding mobility trends to an environmental model improved the predictive power.
Results: Through stepwise backward multiple linear regression four highly significant (p < 0.01) predictive factors are selected in our combined model: temperature, solar radiation, hay fever incidence, and mobility to indoor recreation locations. Our combined model explains 87.5% of the variance of R t of COVID-19 and has a good and highly significant fit: F(4, 213) = 374.2, p < 0.00001. This model had a better overall predictive performance than a solely environmental model, which explains 77.3% of the variance of R t (F(4, 213) = 181.3, p < 0.00001).
Conclusions: We conclude that the combined mobility and environmental model can adequately predict the seasonality of COVID-19 in a country with a temperate climate like the Netherlands. In this model higher solar radiation, higher temperature and hay fever are related to lower COVID-19 reproduction, and higher mobility to indoor recreation locations is related to an increased COVID-19 spread.
(Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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