Relationship between lay and expert perceptions of COVID-19 vaccine development timelines in Canada and USA.

Autor: Kane PB; STREAM Research Group, Division of Ethics and Policy, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada., Moyer H; STREAM Research Group, Division of Ethics and Policy, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada., MacPherson A; STREAM Research Group, Division of Ethics and Policy, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada., Papenburg J; Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Dept. of Pediatrics, The Montreal Children's Hospital, McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada., Ward BJ; Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montréal, Québec, Canada., Broomell SB; Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States of America., Kimmleman J; STREAM Research Group, Division of Ethics and Policy, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PloS one [PLoS One] 2022 Feb 15; Vol. 17 (2), pp. e0262740. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Feb 15 (Print Publication: 2022).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262740
Abstrakt: Objectives: Compare lay expectations of medical development to those of experts in the context of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development.
Methods: A short online survey of experts and lay people measuring when participants believe important vaccine milestones would occur and how likely potential setbacks were. Samples of US and Canadian lay people recruited through Qualtrics. The expert sample was created through a contact network in vaccine development and supplemented with corresponding authors of recent scholarly review articles on vaccine development.
Results: In aggregate, lay people gave responses that were within 3 months of experts, tending to be later than experts for early milestones and earlier for later milestones. Median lay best estimates for when a vaccine would be available to the public were 08/2021 and 09/2021 for the US and Canadian samples, compared with 09-10/2021 for the experts. However, many individual lay responses showed more substantial disagreement with expert opinions, with 54% of lay best estimates of when a vaccine would be available to the public being before the median expert soonest estimate or after the median expert latest estimate. Lay people were much more pessimistic about vaccine development encountering setbacks than experts (median probability 59% of boxed warning compared with only 30% for experts). Misalignment between layperson and expert expectations was not explained by any demographic variables collected in our survey.
Conclusion: Median lay expectations were generally similar to experts. At the individual level, however, lay people showed substantial variation with many believing milestones would occur much sooner than experts. Lay people were in general much more pessimistic about the prospect of setbacks than were experts.
Competing Interests: PBK, SBB, HM, AM, JK declare no conflicts of interest. BJW serves as medical officer for Medicago Inc, a pre-commercial biotechnology company with a candidate vaccine for SARS-COV-2. JP has received consulting/honoraria fees from AbbVie and Seegene, and research grant funding outside of the current work from AbbVie, Sanofi Pasteur and MedImmune. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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