Predicting the next Pogačar: a data analytical approach to detect young professional cycling talents.

Autor: Janssens B; Department of Marketing, Innovation and Organisation, Ghent University, Tweekerkenstraat 2, 9000 Ghent, Belgium., Bogaert M; Department of Marketing, Innovation and Organisation, Ghent University, Tweekerkenstraat 2, 9000 Ghent, Belgium., Maton M; Department of Marketing, Innovation and Organisation, Ghent University, Tweekerkenstraat 2, 9000 Ghent, Belgium.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Annals of operations research [Ann Oper Res] 2023; Vol. 325 (1), pp. 557-588. Date of Electronic Publication: 2022 Jan 19.
DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04476-4
Abstrakt: The importance of young athletes in the field of professional cycling has sky-rocketed during the past years. Nevertheless, the early talent identification of these riders largely remains a subjective assessment. Therefore, an analytical system which automatically detects talented riders based on their freely available youth results should be installed. However, such a system cannot be copied directly from related fields, as large distinctions are observed between cycling and other sports. The aim of this paper is to develop such a data analytical system, which leverages the unique features of each race and thereby focusses on feature engineering, data quality, and visualization. To facilitate the deployment of prediction algorithms in situations without complete cases, we propose an adaptation to the k-nearest neighbours imputation algorithm which uses expert knowledge. Overall, our proposed method correlates strongly with eventual rider performance and can aid scouts in targeting young talents. On top of that, we introduce several model interpretation tools to give insight into which current starting professional riders are expected to perform well and why.
(© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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