Impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Switzerland.

Autor:	Shattock AJ; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. Electronic address: andrewjames.shattock@swisstph.ch., Le Rutte EA; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. Electronic address: epke.lerutte@swisstph.ch., Dünner RP; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland. Electronic address: robert.duenner@unibas.ch., Sen S; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. Electronic address: swapnoleena.sen@unibas.ch., Kelly SL; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia. Electronic address: sherrie.kelly@unibas.ch., Chitnis N; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. Electronic address: nakul.chitnis@unibas.ch., Penny MA; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. Electronic address: melissa.penny@unibas.ch.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Epidemics [Epidemics] 2022 Mar; Vol. 38, pp. 100535. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Dec 14.
DOI:	10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100535
Abstrakt:	Background: As vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 increases amidst the emergence and spread of more infectious and potentially more deadly viral variants, decisions on timing and extent of relaxing effective, but unsustainable, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) need to be made. Methods: An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, OpenCOVID, was developed to compare the impact of various vaccination and NPI strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. OpenCOVID uses the Oxford Containment Health Index (OCHI) to quantify the stringency of NPIs. Results: Even if NPIs in place in March 2021 were to be maintained and the vaccine campaigns rollout rapidly scaled-up, a 'third wave' was predicted. However, we find a cautious phased relaxation can substantially reduce population-level morbidity and mortality. We find that a faster vaccination campaign can offset the size of such a wave, allowing more flexibility for NPIs to be relaxed sooner. Model outcomes were most sensitive to the level of infectiousness of variants of concern observed in Switzerland. Conclusion: A rapid vaccination rollout can allow the sooner relaxation of NPIs, however ongoing surveillance of - and swift responses to - emerging viral variants is of utmost importance for epidemic control. (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:	Zobrazit plný text záznamu