Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather.

Autor: Nichols GL; Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK. gordon.nichols@phe.gov.uk.; European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, C/O Knowledge Spa RCHT, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3HD, UK. gordon.nichols@phe.gov.uk.; School of Environmental Sciences, UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. gordon.nichols@phe.gov.uk., Gillingham EL; Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK., Macintyre HL; Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.; School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, B15 2TT, UK., Vardoulakis S; European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, C/O Knowledge Spa RCHT, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3HD, UK.; National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia., Hajat S; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Sarran CE; Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK.; Institute of Health Research, University of Exeter, Saint Luke's Campus, Heavitree Road, Exeter, EX1 2LU, UK., Amankwaah D; Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK., Phalkey R; Climate Change and Health Group, Centre for Radiation Chemicals and Environmental Hazards, UK Health Security Agency (Formerly Public Health England), Chilton, Oxon, OX11 0RQ, UK.; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.; Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: BMC infectious diseases [BMC Infect Dis] 2021 Oct 26; Vol. 21 (1), pp. 1101. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Oct 26.
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06785-2
Abstrakt: Background: The survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases.
Methods: Respiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient's specimen date with a range of lag periods.
Results: The seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989-2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m 2 /h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m 2 /h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9-4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1-7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2-2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle.
Conclusions: The dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R 0 associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19.
(© 2021. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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