Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave.

Autor: Davis JT; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA., Chinazzi M; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA., Perra N; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.; Networks and Urban Systems Centre, University of Greenwich, London, UK., Mu K; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA., Pastore Y Piontti A; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA., Ajelli M; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA., Dean NE; Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA., Gioannini C; ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy., Litvinova M; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA., Merler S; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy., Rossi L; ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy., Sun K; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA., Xiong X; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA., Longini IM Jr; Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA., Halloran ME; Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA., Viboud C; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA., Vespignani A; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature [Nature] 2021 Dec; Vol. 600 (7887), pp. 127-132. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Oct 25.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-04130-w
Abstrakt: Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timeline of introductions and onsets of local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally 1-7 . Although a limited number of SARS-CoV-2 introductions were reported in January and February 2020 (refs. 8,9 ), the narrowness of the initial testing criteria, combined with a slow growth in testing capacity and porous travel screening 10 , left many countries vulnerable to unmitigated, cryptic transmission. Here we use a global metapopulation epidemic model to provide a mechanistic understanding of the early dispersal of infections and the temporal windows of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 and onset of local transmission in Europe and the USA. We find that community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was likely to have been present in several areas of Europe and the USA by January 2020, and estimate that by early March, only 1 to 4 in 100 SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected by surveillance systems. The modelling results highlight international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2, with possible introductions and transmission events as early as December 2019 to January 2020. We find a heterogeneous geographic distribution of cumulative infection attack rates by 4 July 2020, ranging from 0.78% to 15.2% across US states and 0.19% to 13.2% in European countries. Our approach complements phylogenetic analyses and other surveillance approaches and provides insights that can be used to design innovative, model-driven surveillance systems that guide enhanced testing and response strategies.
(© 2021. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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