Coastal subsidence increases vulnerability to sea level rise over twenty first century in Cartagena, Caribbean Colombia.

Autor: Restrepo-Ángel JD; Department of Earth Sciences, School of Sciences, Universidad EAFIT, AA 3300, Medellín, Colombia. jdrestre@eafit.edu.co., Mora-Páez H; Colombian Geological Survey, Space Geodesy Research Group, Bogotá, Colombia., Díaz F; Colombian Geological Survey, Space Geodesy Research Group, Bogotá, Colombia., Govorcin M; Faculty of Geodesy, Institute of Geomatics, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia., Wdowinski S; Department of Earth and Environment, Institute of Environment, Florida International University, Miami, USA., Giraldo-Londoño L; Colombian Geological Survey, Space Geodesy Research Group, Bogotá, Colombia., Tosic M; Department of Earth Sciences, School of Sciences, Universidad EAFIT, AA 3300, Medellín, Colombia., Fernández I; Department of Earth Sciences, School of Sciences, Universidad EAFIT, AA 3300, Medellín, Colombia., Paniagua-Arroyave JF; Department of Earth Sciences, School of Sciences, Universidad EAFIT, AA 3300, Medellín, Colombia., Duque-Trujillo JF; Department of Earth Sciences, School of Sciences, Universidad EAFIT, AA 3300, Medellín, Colombia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Scientific reports [Sci Rep] 2021 Sep 23; Vol. 11 (1), pp. 18873. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Sep 23.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-98428-4
Abstrakt: Cartagena is subsiding at a higher rate compared to that of global climate-driven sea level rise. We investigate the relative sea level rise (RSLR) and the influence of vertical land movements in Cartagena through the integration of different datasets, including tide gauge records, GPS geodetic subsidence data, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations of vertical motions. Results reveal a long-term rate (> 60 years) of RSLR of 5.98 ± 0.01 mm/yr. The last two decades exhibited an even greater rate of RSLR of 7.02 ± 0.06 mm/yr. GPS subsidence rates range between - 5.71 ± 2.18 and - 2.85 ± 0.84 mm/yr. InSAR data for the 2014-2020 period show cumulative subsidence rates of up to 72.3 mm. We find that geologically induced vertical motions represent 41% of the observed changes in RSLR and that subsidence poses a major threat to Cartagena's preservation. The geodetic subsidence rates found would imply a further additional RSLR of 83 mm by 2050 and 225 mm by 2100. The Colombian government should plan for the future and serve as an example to similar cities across the Caribbean.
(© 2021. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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