Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.

Autor: Davis EL; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. emma.davis@bdi.ox.ac.uk., Lucas TCD; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Borlase A; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Pollington TM; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.; MathSys CDT, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK., Abbott S; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Ayabina D; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Crellen T; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Hellewell J; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Pi L; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Medley GF; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease & Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Hollingsworth TD; Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Klepac P; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.; Department for Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Nature communications [Nat Commun] 2021 Sep 13; Vol. 12 (1), pp. 5412. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Sep 13.
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
Abstrakt: Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.
(© 2021. The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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