Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators.

Autor: Florko KRN; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada., Tai TC; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada., Cheung WWL; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada., Ferguson SH; Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada., Sumaila UR; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada., Yurkowski DJ; Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.; Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada., Auger-Méthé M; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.; Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Ecology letters [Ecol Lett] 2021 Dec; Vol. 24 (12), pp. 2563-2575. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Sep 01.
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13866
Abstrakt: Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.
(© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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