Control of snakebite envenoming: A mathematical modeling study.

Autor: Abdullahi SA; Department of Mathematics, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola, Adamawa State, Nigeria.; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Bayero University, Kano, Kano State, Nigeria., Habib AG; Infectious and Tropical Diseases Unit, Department of Medicine, Bayero Univesrity Kano, Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, Kano, Nigeria., Hussaini N; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Bayero University, Kano, Kano State, Nigeria.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: PLoS neglected tropical diseases [PLoS Negl Trop Dis] 2021 Aug 27; Vol. 15 (8), pp. e0009711. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Aug 27 (Print Publication: 2021).
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009711
Abstrakt: A mathematical model is designed to assess the impact of some interventional strategies for curtailing the burden of snakebite envenoming in a community. The model is fitted with real data set. Numerical simulations have shown that public health awareness of the susceptible individuals on snakebite preventive measures could reduce the number of envenoming and prevent deaths and disabilities in the population. The simulations further revealed that if at least fifty percent of snakebite envenoming patients receive early treatment with antivenom a substantial number of deaths will be averted. Furthermore, it is shown using optimal control that combining public health awareness and antivenom treatment averts the highest number of snakebite induced deaths and disability adjusted life years in the study area. To choose the best strategy amidst limited resources in the study area, cost effectiveness analysis in terms of incremental cost effectiveness ratio is performed. It has been established that the control efforts of combining public health awareness of the susceptible individuals and antivenom treatment for victims of snakebite envenoming is the most cost effective strategy. Approximately the sum of US$72,548 is needed to avert 117 deaths or 2,739 disability adjusted life years that are recorded within 21 months in the study area. Thus, the combination of these two control strategies is recommended.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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