COVID-19 and the flu: data simulations and computational modelling to guide public health strategies.

Autor:	Tunaligil V; SIMMERK Medical Simulation Center, Division of Public Health and Department of Emergency, Disaster Medical Services, TR MoH Health Directorate of Istanbul, Istanbul, Turkey., Meral G; President's Office and Department of Pediatrics, Nutrigenetics and Epigenetics Association, Istanbul, Turkey., Dabak MR; Department of Family Medicine, Divisions of Residency Training Programs and Clinical Practice Chieftaincy, TR MoH Haseki Research and Training Hospital, Istanbul, Turkey., Canbulat M; Department of Data Management, Turkish Airlines, Istanbul, Turkey.; Department of Data Science, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany., Demir SS; President's Office and Departments of Biomedical, Electrical, Computer Engineering, Science Heroes Association, Istanbul, Turkey.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Family practice [Fam Pract] 2021 Aug 27; Vol. 38 (Suppl 1), pp. i16-i22.
DOI:	10.1093/fampra/cmab058
Abstrakt:	Background: Pandemics threaten lives and economies. This article addresses the global threat of the anticipated overlap of COVID-19 with seasonal-influenza. Objectives: Scientific evidence based on simulation methodology is presented to reveal the impact of a dual outbreak, with scenarios intended for propagation analysis. This article aims at researchers, clinicians of family medicine, general practice and policy-makers worldwide. The implications for the clinical practice of primary health care are discussed. Current research is an effort to explore new directions in epidemiology and health services delivery. Methods: Projections consisted of machine learning, dynamic modelling algorithms and whole simulations. Input data consisted of global indicators of infectious diseases. Four simulations were run for '20% versus 60% flu-vaccinated populations' and '10 versus 20 personal contacts'. Outputs consisted of numerical values and mathematical graphs. Outputs consisted of numbers for 'never infected', 'vaccinated', 'infected/recovered', 'symptomatic/asymptomatic' and 'deceased' individuals. Peaks, percentages, R0, durations are reported. Results: The best-case scenario was one with a higher flu-vaccination rate and fewer contacts. The reverse generated the worst outcomes, likely to disrupt the provision of vital community services. Both measures were proven effective; however, results demonstrated that 'increasing flu-vaccination rates' is a more powerful strategy than 'limiting social contacts'. Conclusions: Results support two affordable preventive measures: (i) to globally increase influenza-vaccination rates, (ii) to limit the number of personal contacts during outbreaks. The authors endorse changing practices and research incentives towards multidisciplinary collaborations. The urgency of the situation is a call for international health policy to promote interdisciplinary modern technologies in public health engineering. (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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