Agriculture and forest land use change in the continental United States: Are there tipping points?

Autor: Gurgel AC; Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E19-411, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA., Reilly J; Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E19-411, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA., Blanc E; Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, E19-411, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: IScience [iScience] 2021 Jun 24; Vol. 24 (7), pp. 102772. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jun 24 (Print Publication: 2021).
DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2021.102772
Abstrakt: Land use in the United States (US) is driven by multiple forces operating at the global level, such as income and population growth, yield and productivity improvement, trade policy, climate change, and changing diets. Future land use has implications for biodiversity, run-off, carbon storage, ecosystem values, agriculture, and the broader economy. We investigate those forces and their implications from a multisector, multisystem dynamics (MSD) perspective focused on understanding dynamics and resilience in complex interdependent systems. Historical trends show slight increases in grassland and natural forest areas and decreases in cropland. We project these trends to intensify under higher pressures for agriculture land and reduce under lower pressures, with no evidence of tipping points toward larger agricultural land abandonment or deforestation. However, US sectoral output and trade, fertilizer use, N 2 O and CH 4 emissions from agriculture activities, and CO 2 emissions from land use changes are substantially impacted under land use forcing scenarios.
Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
(© 2021 The Author(s).)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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