School openings and the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. A provincial-level analysis using the synthetic control method.

Autor: Alfano V; Department of Structures for Engineering and Architecture, University of Naples Federico II, Via Mezzocannone, 4, 80138 Napoli, Italy; Center for Economic Studies - CESifo, Italy. Electronic address: vincenzo.alfano@unina.it., Ercolano S; Department of Mathematics, Information Sciences and Economics, University of Basilicata, Italy; National University Centre for Applied Economic Studies - CMET 05, Italy. Electronic address: salvatore.ercolano@unibas.it., Cicatiello L; Department of Human and Social Science, University of Napoli L'Orientale, Italy. Electronic address: lcicatiello@unior.it.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands) [Health Policy] 2021 Sep; Vol. 125 (9), pp. 1200-1207. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jul 02.
DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.06.010
Abstrakt: Schools have been central in the debate about COVID-19. On the one hand, many have argued that they should be kept open, given their importance to youngsters and the future of the country, and the effort many countries have made in establishing protocols to keep them safe. On the other hand, it has been argued that open schools further the spread of the virus, given that these are places with large-scale interaction between teenagers and adults accompanying their children, as well as a major source of congestion on public transportation. We aim to identify the effect of school openings on the spread of COVID-19 contagion. Italy offers an interesting quasi-experimental setting in this regard due to the scattered openings that schools have experienced. By means of a quantitative analysis, employing a synthetic control method approach, we find that Bolzano, the first province in Italy to open schools after the summer break, had far more cases than its synthetic counterfactual, built from a donor pool formed from the other Italian provinces. Results confirm the hypothesis that despite the precautions, opening schools causes an increase in the infection rate, and this must be taken into account by policymakers.
(Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
Externí odkaz: