Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance-adapted native annual plants.

Autor: Reed PB; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA., Bridgham SD; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA., Pfeifer-Meister LE; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA., DeMarche ML; Plant Biology Department, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, 30606, USA., Johnson BR; Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA., Roy BA; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA., Bailes GT; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA., Nelson AA; Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA., Morris WF; Biology Department, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, 27708, USA., Doak DF; Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Ecology [Ecology] 2021 Oct; Vol. 102 (10), pp. e03464. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Aug 05.
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3464
Abstrakt: With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals' persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.
(© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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