Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk.

Autor: Wang YXG; Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.; Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland., Matson KD; Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands., Santini L; Department of Biology and Biotechnologies 'Charles Darwin', Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.; Institute of Research on Terrestrial Ecosystems (CNR-IRET), National Research Council, Monterotondo (Rome), Italy.; Department of Environmental Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands., Visconti P; International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.; Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK., Hilbers JP; Department of Environmental Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands., Huijbregts MAJ; Department of Environmental Science, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands., Xu Y; Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.; The Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland., Prins HHT; Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.; Department of Animal Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands., Allen T; EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA., Huang ZYX; Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.; College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China., de Boer WF; Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Global change biology [Glob Chang Biol] 2021 Oct; Vol. 27 (20), pp. 4995-5007. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jul 22.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15784
Abstrakt: As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e. the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritize resource distribution.
(© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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