Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM 2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models.

Autor: Shim S; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Sung H; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Kwon S; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Kim J; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Lee J; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Sun M; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Song J; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Ha J; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Byun Y; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Kim Y; Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea., Turnock ST; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.; University of Leeds Met Office Strategic (LUMOS) Research Group, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK., Stevenson DS; School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, UK., Allen RJ; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, USA., O'Connor FM; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK., Teixeira JC; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK., Williams J; National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6022, New Zealand., Johnson B; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK., Keeble J; Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK.; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK., Mulcahy J; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK., Zeng G; National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6022, New Zealand.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: International journal of environmental research and public health [Int J Environ Res Public Health] 2021 Jun 25; Vol. 18 (13). Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jun 25.
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18136817
Abstrakt: This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM 2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM 2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM 2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM 2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM 2.5 , it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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