Should Contact Bans Have Been Lifted More in Germany?: A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects.

Autor:	Donsimoni JR; Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Jakob-Welder-Weg 4, D-55128 Mainz, Germany., Glawion R; Department of Economics, Hamburg University., Plachter B; Institute for Virology of the University Medical Center Mainz, Mainz, Germany., Wälde K; Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Jakob-Welder-Weg 4, D-55128 Mainz, Germany; CESifo and Visiting Research Fellow IZA., Weiser C; Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Jakob-Welder-Weg 4, D-55128 Mainz, Germany.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	CESifo economic studies [CESifo Econ Stud] 2020 Jun; Vol. 66 (2), pp. 115-133. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Jul 03.
DOI:	10.1093/cesifo/ifaa004
Abstrakt:	Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would have been reached already end of April. The number of sick individuals would have fallen below 1000 at the beginning of July. If restrictions had been lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should have risen quickly again from around 27 April. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states. (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Ifo Institute, Munich. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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