The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP.

Autor: Jones CD; Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK., Hickman JE; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA., Rumbold ST; National Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Reading UK., Walton J; Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK., Lamboll RD; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment Imperial College London London UK., Skeie RB; CICERO Center for International Climate Research Oslo Norway., Fiedler S; Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology University of Cologne Cologne Germany.; Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research Bonn/Cologne Germany., Forster PM; Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds UK., Rogelj J; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment Imperial College London London UK.; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Laxenburg Austria., Abe M; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan., Botzet M; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany., Calvin K; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA.; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory College Park MD USA., Cassou C; CECI CNRS CERFACS Université de Toulouse Toulouse France., Cole JNS; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Environment and Climate Change Canada Victoria BC Canada., Davini P; Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR-ISAC) Torino Italy., Deushi M; Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba Japan., Dix M; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Aspendale VIC Australia., Fyfe JC; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Environment and Climate Change Canada Victoria BC Canada., Gillett NP; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Environment and Climate Change Canada Victoria BC Canada., Ilyina T; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany., Kawamiya M; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan., Kelley M; SciSpace LLC New York NY USA.; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA., Kharin S; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Environment and Climate Change Canada Victoria BC Canada., Koshiro T; Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba Japan., Li H; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany., Mackallah C; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Aspendale VIC Australia., Müller WA; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany., Nabat P; CNRM CNRS Université de Toulouse Toulouse France., van Noije T; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) AE De Bilt Netherlands., Nolan P; Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) I Trinity Technology & Enterprise Campus Dublin 2 Ireland.; Met Éireann Research and Applications Division Dublin Ireland., Ohgaito R; Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan., Olivié D; NORCE Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo Norway., Oshima N; Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba Japan., Parodi J; Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) Murcia Spain., Reerink TJ; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) AE De Bilt Netherlands., Ren L; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China., Romanou A; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA., Séférian R; CNRM CNRS Université de Toulouse Toulouse France., Tang Y; Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK., Timmreck C; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany., Tjiputra J; Norwegian Research Centre and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Bergen Norway., Tourigny E; Earth Sciences Department Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) Barcelona Spain., Tsigaridis K; Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University New York NY USA.; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA., Wang H; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA., Wu M; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA., Wyser K; Rossby Centre Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Norrköping Sweden., Yang S; Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Copenhagen Denmark., Yang Y; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology School of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China., Ziehn T; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Aspendale VIC Australia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Geophysical research letters [Geophys Res Lett] 2021 Apr 28; Vol. 48 (8), pp. e2020GL091883.
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091883
Abstrakt: Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.
(© 2021. Crown Copyright. © 2021. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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