Quantitative assessment of observed versus predicted responses to selection.

Autor: Pélabon C; Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway., Albertsen E; Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.; Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Ås, Norway., Rouzic AL; Évolution, Génomes, Comportement, Écologie, Université Paris-Saclay CNRS-IRD, Gif sur Yvette, France., Firmat C; INRAE, Université de Toulouse, UMR AGIR, Castanet-Tolosan Cedex, France., Bolstad GH; Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Trondheim, Norway., Armbruster WS; School of Biological Sciences, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK.; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA., Hansen TF; Department of Biology, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Evolution; international journal of organic evolution [Evolution] 2021 Sep; Vol. 75 (9), pp. 2217-2236. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jul 27.
DOI: 10.1111/evo.14284
Abstrakt: Although artificial-selection experiments seem well suited to testing our ability to predict evolution, the correspondence between predicted and observed responses is often ambiguous due to the lack of uncertainty estimates. We present equations for assessing prediction error in direct and indirect responses to selection that integrate uncertainty in genetic parameters used for prediction and sampling effects during selection. Using these, we analyzed a selection experiment on floral traits replicated in two taxa of the Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) species complex for which G-matrices were obtained from a diallel breeding design. After four episodes of bidirectional selection, direct and indirect responses remained within wide prediction intervals, but appeared different from the predictions. Combined analyses with structural-equation models confirmed that responses were asymmetrical and lower than predicted in both species. We show that genetic drift is likely to be a dominant source of uncertainty in typically-dimensioned selection experiments in plants and a major obstacle to predicting short-term evolutionary trajectories.
(© 2021 The Authors. Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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