Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns.
Autor: | Laydon DJ; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK d.laydon@imperial.ac.uk., Mishra S; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK., Hinsley WR; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK., Samartsidis P; MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK., Flaxman S; Department of Mathematics and Data Science Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK., Gandy A; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK., Ferguson NM; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK., Bhatt S; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK. |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Zdroj: | BMJ open [BMJ Open] 2021 Apr 22; Vol. 11 (4), pp. e050346. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Apr 22. |
DOI: | 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050346 |
Abstrakt: | Objective: To measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern. Design: This is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number R Setting: The UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis. Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: Reduction in real-time reproduction number R Results: Nationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, R Conclusions: The relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed. Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared. (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.) |
Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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