Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis.

Autor:	Zhang T; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China., Ding S; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China., Zeng Z; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China., Cheng H; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China., Zhang C; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China., Mao X; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China., Pan H; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China., Xia G; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China., Che D; Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China. chedaping2020@163.com.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Journal of infection in developing countries [J Infect Dev Ctries] 2021 Mar 31; Vol. 15 (3), pp. 326-332. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Mar 31.
DOI:	10.3855/jidc.14025
Abstrakt:	Introduction: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method. Methodology: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by "fitdistrplus" package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by "meta" package of R software. Results: Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR: 3.8 - 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR: 3.6 - 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR: 1.1 - 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI: 5.75 - 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI: 4.73 - 5.57), respectively. Conclusions: Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Competing Interests: No Conflict of Interest is declared (Copyright (c) 2021 Tianchen Zhang, Sheng Ding, Zhili Zeng, Huijian Cheng, Chengfeng Zhang, Xiangqun Mao , Huanhong Pan , Guanghui Xia, Daping Che.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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