Cyanotoxin mixture models: Relating environmental variables and toxin co-occurrence to human exposure risk.

Autor: Christensen VG; US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, 2280 Woodale Drive, Mounds View, MN 55112, USA; North Dakota State University, Environmental and Conservation Sciences Program, Fargo, ND 58102, USA. Electronic address: vglenn@usgs.gov., Stelzer EA; US Geological Survey Ohio Water Microbiology Laboratory, 6460 Busch Blvd STE 100, Columbus, OH, USA., Eikenberry BC; US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, 8505 Research Way, Middleton, WI 53562, USA., Olds HT; US Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Water Science Center, 8505 Research Way, Middleton, WI 53562, USA., LeDuc JF; Voyageurs National Park, 360 Highway 11 East, International Falls, MN 56649, USA., Maki RP; Voyageurs National Park, 360 Highway 11 East, International Falls, MN 56649, USA., Saley AM; Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California-Davis, 2099 Westshore Road, Bodega Bay, CA 94923, USA., Norland J; North Dakota State University, Environmental and Conservation Sciences Program, Fargo, ND 58102, USA., Khan E; University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction, 4505 S Maryland Pkwy, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Journal of hazardous materials [J Hazard Mater] 2021 Aug 05; Vol. 415, pp. 125560. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Mar 06.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.125560
Abstrakt: Toxic cyanobacterial blooms, often containing multiple toxins, are a serious public health issue. However, there are no known models that predict a cyanotoxin mixture (anatoxin-a, microcystin, saxitoxin). This paper presents two cyanotoxin mixture models (MIX) and compares them to two microcystin (MC) models from data collected in 2016-2017 from three recurring cyanobacterial bloom locations in Kabetogama Lake, Voyageurs National Park (Minnesota, USA). Models include those using near-real-time environmental variables (readily available) and those using additional comprehensive variables (based on laboratory analyses). Comprehensive models (R 2 = 0.87 MC; R 2 = 0.86 MIX) explained more variability than the environmental models (R 2 = 0.58 MC; R 2 = 0.57 MIX). Although neither MIX model was a better fit than the MC models, the MIX models produced no false negatives in the calibration dataset, indicating that all observations above regulatory guidelines were simulated by the MIX models. This is the first known use of Virtual Beach software for a cyanotoxin mixture model, and the methods used in this paper may be applicable to other lakes or beaches.
(Published by Elsevier B.V.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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