Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings.

Autor:	Magliano DJ; Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: dianna.magliano@baker.edu.au., Chen L; Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Islam RM; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Carstensen B; Clinical Epidemiology, Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen, Gentofte, Denmark., Gregg EW; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK., Pavkov ME; Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA., Andes LJ; Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA., Balicer R; Clalit Research Institute, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel., Baviera M; Laboratory of Cardiovascular Prevention, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research IRCCS, Milan, Italy., Boersma-van Dam E; Department of General Practice, Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research, Utrecht, Netherlands., Booth GL; Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada., Chan JCN; Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China., Chua YX; Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Public Health Group, Ministry of Health, Singapore., Fosse-Edorh S; Department of Non-Communicable Diseases and Trauma, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France., Fuentes S; Department of Non-Communicable Diseases and Trauma, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France., Gulseth HL; Department for Chronic Diseases and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Gurevicius R; Center of Health Information, Institute of Hygiene, Vilnius, Lithuania; Faculty of Public Governance and Business, Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, Lithuania., Ha KH; Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea., Hird TR; Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Jermendy G; 3rd Medical Department, Bajcsy-Zsilinszky Hospital, Budapest, Hungary., Khalangot MD; Komisarenko Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, National Academy of Medical Sciences, Kyiv, Ukraine; Endocrinology Department, Shupyk National Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Kyiv, Ukraine., Kim DJ; Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea., Kiss Z; 2nd Department of Medicine and Nephrological Center, Medical Faculty, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary., Kravchenko VI; Komisarenko Institute of Endocrinology and Metabolism, National Academy of Medical Sciences, Kyiv, Ukraine., Leventer-Roberts M; Clalit Research Institute, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel; Department of Pediatrics and Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA., Lin CY; General Clinical Research Center, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan., Luk AOY; Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China., Mata-Cases M; CIBER of Diabetes and Associated Metabolic Diseases, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain; DAP-Cat Group, Institut Català de la Salut, Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Barcelona Ciutat, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol, Barcelona, Spain., Mauricio D; CIBER of Diabetes and Associated Metabolic Diseases, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain; DAP-Cat Group, Institut Català de la Salut, Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Barcelona Ciutat, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain., Nichols GA; Science Programs Department, Kaiser Permanente Center for Health Research, Portland, OR, USA., Nielen MM; Department of General Practice, Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research, Utrecht, Netherlands., Pang D; Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, Public Health Group, Ministry of Health, Singapore., Paul SK; Melbourne EpiCentre, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia., Pelletier C; Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada., Pildava S; Research and Health Statistics Department, Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Riga, Latvia., Porath A; Research Institute, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, Israel; Faculty of Health, Ben Gurion University, Beer-Sheva, Israel., Read SH; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK., Roncaglioni MC; Laboratory of Cardiovascular Prevention, Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research IRCCS, Milan, Italy., Lopez-Doriga Ruiz P; Department for Chronic Diseases and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; Department of Endocrinology, Morbid Obesity and Preventive Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway., Shestakova M; Diabetes Institute, Endocrinology Research Center, Moscow, Russia., Vikulova O; Diabetes Institute, Endocrinology Research Center, Moscow, Russia., Wang KL; General Clinical Research Center, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan., Wild SH; Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK., Yekutiel N; Research Institute, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, Israel., Shaw JE; Department of Diabetes and Population Health, Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Life Sciences, Latrobe University, Bundoora, VIC, Australia.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology [Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol] 2021 Apr; Vol. 9 (4), pp. 203-211. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Feb 23.
DOI:	10.1016/S2213-8587(20)30402-2
Abstrakt:	Background: Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time. Methods: In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. Findings: Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions. Interpretation: The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources. Funding: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program. (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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