Seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E): results from the Flu Watch cohort study.

Autor:	Aldridge RW; UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK., Lewer D; UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.; UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB, UK., Beale S; UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.; UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB, UK., Johnson AM; UCL Institute for Global Health, UCL, London, WC1E 6JB, UK., Zambon M; Public Health England, 2-6 Salisbury Square, London, EC4Y 8AE, UK., Hayward AC; UCL Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, UCL, London, WC1E 7HB, UK., Fragaszy EB; UCL Public Health Data Science Research Group, Institute of Health Informatics, UCL, London, NW1 2DA, UK.; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Wellcome open research [Wellcome Open Res] 2020 Dec 10; Vol. 5, pp. 52. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Dec 10 (Print Publication: 2020).
DOI:	10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15812.2
Abstrakt:	Background: There is currently a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The intensity and duration of this first and second waves in the UK may be dependent on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmits more effectively in the winter than the summer and the UK Government response is partially built upon the assumption that those infected will develop immunity to reinfection in the short term. In this paper we examine evidence for seasonality and immunity to laboratory-confirmed seasonal coronavirus (HCoV) from a prospective cohort study in England. Methods: In this analysis of the Flu Watch cohort, we examine seasonal trends for PCR-confirmed coronavirus infections (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-229E) in all participants during winter seasons (2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009) and during the first wave of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic (May-Sep 2009). We also included data from the pandemic and 'post-pandemic' winter seasons (2009-2010 and 2010-2011) to identify individuals with two confirmed HCoV infections and examine evidence for immunity against homologous reinfection. Results: We tested 1,104 swabs taken during respiratory illness and detected HCoV in 199 during the first four seasons. The rate of confirmed HCoV infection across all seasons was 390 (95% CI 338-448) per 100,000 person-weeks; highest in the Nov-Mar 2008/9 season at 674 (95%CI 537-835) per 100,000 person-weeks. The highest rate was in February at 759 (95% CI 580-975) per 100,000 person-weeks. Data collected during May-Sep 2009 showed there was small amounts of ongoing transmission, with four cases detected during this period. Eight participants had two confirmed infections, of which none had the same strain twice. Conclusion: Our results provide evidence that HCoV infection in England is most intense in winter, but that there is a small amount of ongoing transmission during summer periods. We found some evidence of immunity against homologous reinfection. Competing Interests: Competing interests: ACH serves on the UK New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group. AMJ was a Governor of Wellcome Trust from 2011-18 and is Chair of the Committee for Strategic Coordination for Health of the Public Research. (Copyright: © 2020 Aldridge RW et al.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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