Undetected infectives in the Covid-19 pandemic.
| Autor: | Melis M; AART (Association for the Advancement of Research on Transplantation), Cagliari, Italy. Electronic address: maurizio.melis@gmail.com., Littera R; Complex Structure of Medical Genetics, R. Binaghi Hospital, ASSL Cagliari, ATS Sardegna, Italy. Electronic address: roby.litter@gmail.com. |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Zdroj: | International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [Int J Infect Dis] 2021 Mar; Vol. 104, pp. 262-268. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jan 09. |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.010 |
| Abstrakt: | Objectives: Epidemiological investigations and mathematical models have revealed that the rapid diffusion of Covid-19 can mostly be attributed to undetected infective individuals who continue to circulate and spread the disease: finding their number would be of great importance in the control of the epidemic. Methods: The dynamics of an infection can be described by the SIR model, which divides the population into susceptible (S), infective I, and removed R subjects. In particular, we exploited the Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model, which can be applied when the population is much larger than the fraction of infected subjects. Results: We proved that the fraction of undetected infectives, compared to the total number of infected subjects, is given by 1-1R Conclusions: Our results, straightforwardly obtained from the SIR model, highlight the role of undetected carriers in the transmission and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Such evidence strongly recommends careful monitoring of the infective population and ongoing adjustment of preventive measures for disease control until a vaccine becomes available for most of the population. (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.) |
| Databáze: | MEDLINE |
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