Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil.

Autor: Tarrataca L; Department of Computer Engineering, Celso Suckow da Fonseca Federal Center for Technological Education, Petrópolis, Brazil., Dias CM; Department of Technologies and Languages Multidisciplinary Institute, Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro, Nova Iguaçu, Brazil., Haddad DB; Department of Computer Engineering, Celso Suckow da Fonseca Federal Center for Technological Education, Petrópolis, Brazil., De Arruda EF; Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute-Graduate School and Research in Engineering, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.; Department of Decision Analytics and Risk, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, 12 University Rd, Southampton, SO17 1BJ UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Journal of mathematics in industry [J Math Ind] 2021; Vol. 11 (1), pp. 2. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jan 06.
DOI: 10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w
Abstrakt: The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of the virus a challenging task. This work attempts to gain a better understanding of how COVID-19 will affect one of the least studied countries, namely Brazil. Currently, several Brazilian states are in a state of lock-down. However, there is political pressure for this type of measures to be lifted. This work considers the impact that such a termination would have on how the virus evolves locally. This was done by extending the SEIR model with an on / off strategy. Given the simplicity of SEIR we also attempted to gain more insight by developing a neural regressor. We chose to employ features that current clinical studies have pinpointed has having a connection to the lethality of COVID-19. We discuss how this data can be processed in order to obtain a robust assessment.
Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w.
Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests.
(© The Author(s) 2021.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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