Nationwide temporal variability of droughts in the Kingdom of Eswatini: 1981-2018.

Autor:	Tfwala CM; Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, 9300 Bloemfontein, South Africa.; Department of Agricultural Research and Specialists Services, Ministry of Agriculture, P.O. Box 4, M204 Malkerns, Swaziland., Mengistu AG; Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, 9300 Bloemfontein, South Africa., Seyama E; National Disaster Management Agency, Deputy Prime Minister's Office, P.O. Box 8909, H100, Mbabane, Swaziland., Mosia MS; Department of Natural Science Teaching, Sol Plaatje University, Private Bag X5008, Kimberley, 8300, South Africa., van Rensburg LD; Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, P.O. Box 339, 9300 Bloemfontein, South Africa., Mvubu B; Department of Agricultural Research and Specialists Services, Ministry of Agriculture, P.O. Box 4, M204 Malkerns, Swaziland., Mbingo M; Department of Agricultural Research and Specialists Services, Ministry of Agriculture, P.O. Box 4, M204 Malkerns, Swaziland., Dlamini P; Department of Plant Production, Soil Science and Agricultural Engineering, University of Limpopo, Private Bag X1106, Sovenga 0727, South Africa.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Heliyon [Heliyon] 2020 Dec 13; Vol. 6 (12), pp. e05707. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Dec 13 (Print Publication: 2020).
DOI:	10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05707
Abstrakt:	For adequate mitigation and adaptation measures, it is essential to have detailed analysis of droughts patterns. This study determined the i) occurrence and severity of droughts ii) drought recurrence frequencies and iii) drought trends across different agro-ecological zones in the Kingdom of Eswatini for the period 1981 to 2018. A Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) computed from long-term precipitation data measured from six meteorological stations was used to determine drought occurrence and severity. Python software (Version 3.6) was applied on the SPI values to predict the recurrence of drought events over time in years. The SPI showed that in the Highveld, 42% of the droughts were moderate, 32% were severe and the remaining 26%, which all occurred post 1980 were extreme (SPI -2.34 to -2.82). The Middleveld had an even proportion of drought categories (29-35%). The Lowveld recorded 62% of moderate, 8% severe and 30% extreme droughts of which 70% occurred post 2000. Moderate droughts were found to recur every 4-5 years while extreme droughts are expected every 13-21 years. These findings are essential for mitigation and adaptation measures geared towards the adverse effects of droughts. Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest. (© 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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