Developing a method for predicting radon concentrations above a reference level in new montenegrin buildings.

Autor: Vukotic P; Montenegrin Academy of Sciences and Arts, 81000, Podgorica, R. Stijovica 5, Montenegro. Electronic address: pvukotic@canu.ac.me., Stojanovska Z; Faculty of Medical Sciences, Goce Delcev University of Stip, 2000, Stip, 10-A Krste Misirkov St, Republic of North Macedonia., Antovic N; Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Montenegro, 81000, Podgorica, Dz. Vasingtona bb, Montenegro.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Journal of environmental radioactivity [J Environ Radioact] 2021 Feb; Vol. 227, pp. 106500. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Dec 11.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106500
Abstrakt: Dependence of indoor radon concentrations (IRCs) in the ground floors of 1200 buildings across Montenegro on 11 factors was analyzed. A group of 734 buildings, for which none of the analyzed factors was missing, was further analyzed using the logistic regression method, in order to develop a prediction model for IRC occurrence above the national reference level for new buildings (200 Bq/m 3 ). Applying the forward stepwise method, and based on likelihood ratios, five explanatory variables-municipality, type of building, presence of basement, window frames, and period of construction-were selected for including into the final logistic regression model for predicting probability of IRC > 200 Bq/m 3 . The final model explained 77.1% of the observed IRCs, while the obtained Area under the Curve of 0.8018 classified the model as having a very high predictive ability. Achieving similar values for both the final prediction model and the validation model, for sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, confirmed the applicability of the developed model.
(Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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