Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information.

Autor: Watts M; University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales, Australia.; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia., Klein CJ; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia.; School of Earth Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia., Tulloch VJD; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.; School of Earth Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia.; Conservation Decisions Lab, Department of Forest and Conservation Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada., Carvalho SB; Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos da Universidade do Porto, R. Padre Armando Quintas, Vairão, Portugal., Possingham HP; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.; Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Conserv Biol] 2021 Aug; Vol. 35 (4), pp. 1299-1308. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jul 16.
DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13681
Abstrakt: Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species' populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.
(© 2020 Society for Conservation Biology.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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