Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics.

Autor:	Nova N; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Deyle ER; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.; Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA., Shocket MS; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA., MacDonald AJ; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.; Earth Research Institute & Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA., Childs ML; Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA., Rypdal M; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway., Sugihara G; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA., Mordecai EA; Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Ecology letters [Ecol Lett] 2021 Mar; Vol. 24 (3), pp. 415-425. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Dec 10.
DOI:	10.1111/ele.13652
Abstrakt:	Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way. (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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