Monitoring for outbreak-associated excess mortality in an African city: Detection limits in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Autor:	Rasambainarivo F; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Mahaliana Labs SARL, Antananarivo, Madagascar., Rasoanomenjanahary A; Bureau Municipal d'Hygiène de la Commune Urbaine d'Antananarivo, Madagascar., Rabarison JH; Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar., Ramiadantsoa T; Department of Mathematics, University of Fianarantsoa, Madagascar; Department of Life Sciences, University of Fianarantsoa, Madagascar., Ratovoson R; Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar., Randremanana R; Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar., Randrianarisoa S; Mahaliana Labs SARL, Antananarivo, Madagascar., Rajeev M; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA., Masquelier B; Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium; Institut National d'Études Démographiques, France., Heraud JM; Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar., Metcalf CJE; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, NJ, USA., Rice BL; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY), Maroantsetra, Madagascar.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [Int J Infect Dis] 2021 Feb; Vol. 103, pp. 338-342. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Nov 26.
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijid.2020.11.182
Abstrakt:	Objectives: Quantitative estimates of the impact of infectious disease outbreaks are required to develop measured policy responses. In many low- and middle-income countries, inadequate surveillance and incompleteness of death registration are important barriers. Design: Here, we characterize how large an impact on mortality would have to be for being detectable using the uniquely detailed mortality notification data from the city of Antananarivo, Madagascar, with application to a recent measles outbreak. Results: The weekly mortality rate of children during the 2018-2019 measles outbreak was 161% above the expected value at its peak, and the signal can be detected earlier in children than in the general population. This approach to detect anomalies from expected baseline mortality allows us to delineate the prevalence of COVID-19 at which excess mortality would be detectable with the existing death notification system in Antananarivo. Conclusions: Given current age-specific estimates of the COVID-19 fatality ratio and the age structure of the population in Antananarivo, we estimate that as few as 11 deaths per week in the 60-70 years age group (corresponding to an infection rate of approximately 1%) would detectably exceed the baseline. Data from 2020 will undergo necessary processing and quality control in the coming months. Our results provide a baseline for interpreting this information. (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
Externí odkaz:	Zobrazit plný text záznamu