| Autor: |
Kjær LJ; Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark. lenju@sund.ku.dk., Klitgaard K; Department for Diagnostics and Scientific Advice, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark., Soleng A; Department of Pest Control, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Edgar KS; Department of Pest Control, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Lindstedt HEH; Department of Pest Control, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Paulsen KM; Department of Virology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.; Department of Production Animal Clinical Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Oslo, Norway., Andreassen ÅK; Department of Virology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway., Korslund L; Department of Natural Sciences, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway., Kjelland V; Department of Natural Sciences, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway.; Research Unit, Sørlandet Hospital Health Enterprise, Kristiansand, Norway., Slettan A; Department of Natural Sciences, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway., Stuen S; Department of Production Animal Clinical Sciences, Section of Small Ruminant Research, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Sandnes, Norway., Kjellander P; Department of Ecology, Grimsö Wildlife Research Station, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Riddarhyttan, Sweden., Christensson M; Department of Ecology, Grimsö Wildlife Research Station, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Riddarhyttan, Sweden., Teräväinen M; Department of Ecology, Grimsö Wildlife Research Station, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Riddarhyttan, Sweden., Baum A; Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark., Jensen LM; Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark., Bødker R; Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg, Denmark. |
| Abstrakt: |
Tick-borne pathogens cause diseases in animals and humans, and tick-borne disease incidence is increasing in many parts of the world. There is a need to assess the distribution of tick-borne pathogens and identify potential risk areas. We collected 29,440 tick nymphs from 50 sites in Scandinavia from August to September, 2016. We tested ticks in a real-time PCR chip, screening for 19 vector-associated pathogens. We analysed spatial patterns, mapped the prevalence of each pathogen and used machine learning algorithms and environmental variables to develop predictive prevalence models. All 50 sites had a pool prevalence of at least 33% for one or more pathogens, the most prevalent being Borrelia afzelii, B. garinii, Rickettsia helvetica, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Neoehrlichia mikurensis. There were large differences in pathogen prevalence between sites, but we identified only limited geographical clustering. The prevalence models performed poorly, with only models for R. helvetica and N. mikurensis having moderate predictive power (normalized RMSE from 0.74-0.75, R 2 from 0.43-0.48). The poor performance of the majority of our prevalence models suggest that the used environmental and climatic variables alone do not explain pathogen prevalence patterns in Scandinavia, although previously the same variables successfully predicted spatial patterns of ticks in the same area. |
