Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters.

Autor:	Mrad A; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708; mradassaad2@gmail.com., Katul GG; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708., Levia DF; Department of Geography & Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716.; Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716., Guswa AJ; Picker Engineering Program, Smith College, Northampton, MA 01063., Boyer EW; Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16803., Bruen M; School of Civil Engineering, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland., Carlyle-Moses DE; Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, BC V2C 0C8, Canada., Coyte R; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708., Creed IF; School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5C8, Canada., van de Giesen N; Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN Delft, Holland., Grasso D; Office of the Chancellor, University of Michigan-Dearborn, Dearborn, MI 48128., Hannah DM; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, United Kingdom., Hudson JE; Department of Geography & Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716., Humphrey V; Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125., Iida S; Department of Disaster Prevention, Meteorology and Hydrology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba 305-8687, Japan., Jackson RB; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.; Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305., Kumagai T; Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan., Llorens P; Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, 08034 Barcelona, Spain., Michalzik B; Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan., Nanko K; Department of Disaster Prevention, Meteorology and Hydrology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Tsukuba 305-8687, Japan., Peters CA; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544., Selker JS; Department of Biological & Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331., Tetzlaff D; Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, 12587 Berlin, Germany.; Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, 1248 Berlin, Germany., Zalewski M; European Regional Center for Ecohydrology, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 90-364 Lodz, Poland.; Department of Applied Ecology, University of Lodz, 90-136 Lodz, Poland., Scanlon BR; Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, 1248 Berlin, Germany.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2020 Oct 20; Vol. 117 (42), pp. 26145-26150. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Oct 05.
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.2008383117
Abstrakt:	Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas. Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest. (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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