Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.

Autor:	Li R; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, W2 1PG London, United Kingdom., Chen B; Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616., Zhang T; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Ren Z; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Song Y; Department of Urban Planning and Design, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 999077., Xiao Y; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Hou L; Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Cai J; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Xu B; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Li M; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Chan KKY; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Tu Y; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Yang M; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Yang J; CAS Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.; CAS Center for Influenza Research and Early-warning (CASCIRE), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.; CAS-TWAS Center of Excellence for Emerging Infectious Diseases (CEEID), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China., Liu Z; Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Shen C; Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Wang C; Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Xu L; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Liu Q; State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 102206 Beijing, China., Bao S; China Data Institute, Ann Arbor, MI 48108., Zhang J; School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Informatics, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, 102616 Beijing, China., Bi Y; CAS Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.; CAS Center for Influenza Research and Early-warning (CASCIRE), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.; CAS-TWAS Center of Excellence for Emerging Infectious Diseases (CEEID), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China., Bai Y; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Deng K; Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Zhang W; Institute of High Performance Computing, Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Huang W; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Whittington JD; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway., Stenseth NC; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China; n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no guandabo@tsinghua.edu.cn penggong@tsinghua.edu.cn bingxu@tsinghua.edu.cn.; Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway., Guan D; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China; n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no guandabo@tsinghua.edu.cn penggong@tsinghua.edu.cn bingxu@tsinghua.edu.cn.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Gong P; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China; n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no guandabo@tsinghua.edu.cn penggong@tsinghua.edu.cn bingxu@tsinghua.edu.cn.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China., Xu B; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China; n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no guandabo@tsinghua.edu.cn penggong@tsinghua.edu.cn bingxu@tsinghua.edu.cn.; Tsinghua Urban Institute, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A] 2020 Oct 20; Vol. 117 (42), pp. 26151-26157. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Sep 28.
DOI:	10.1073/pnas.2012002117
Abstrakt:	Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society. Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest. (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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