The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018.

Autor: Lee DS; Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom., Fahey DW; NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, USA., Skowron A; Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom., Allen MR; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK., Burkhardt U; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany., Chen Q; State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China., Doherty SJ; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA., Freeman S; Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom., Forster PM; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom., Fuglestvedt J; CICERO-Center for International Climate Research-Oslo, PO Box 1129, Blindern, 0318, Oslo, Norway., Gettelman A; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA., De León RR; Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom., Lim LL; Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom., Lund MT; CICERO-Center for International Climate Research-Oslo, PO Box 1129, Blindern, 0318, Oslo, Norway., Millar RJ; School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.; Committee on Climate Change, 151 Buckingham Palace Road, London, SW1W 9SZ, UK., Owen B; Faculty of Science and Engineering, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom., Penner JE; Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, 2455 Hayward St., Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-2143, USA., Pitari G; Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, Via Vetoio, 67100, L'Aquila, Italy., Prather MJ; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, 3329 Croul Hall, CA, 92697-3100, USA., Sausen R; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany., Wilcox LJ; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994) [Atmos Environ (1994)] 2021 Jan 01; Vol. 244, pp. 117834. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Sep 03.
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834
Abstrakt: Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960-2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr -1 , and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO 2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO 2 yr -1 . Over the period 2013-2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000-2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO 2 and NO x emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m -2 (5-95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m -2 ), CO 2 (34.3 mW m -2 ), and NO x (17.5 mW m -2 ). Non-CO 2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m -2 . Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO 2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO 2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO 2 -warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO 2 emissions alone. CO 2 and NO x aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
(© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Databáze: MEDLINE
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