| Autor: |
Harris RMB; Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany. rmharris@utas.edu.au.; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. rmharris@utas.edu.au.; Discipline of Geography & Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. rmharris@utas.edu.au., Loeffler F; Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany., Rumm A; ÖKON Ltd. Ass. for Landscape Ecology, Limnology, and Environmental Planning, Hohenfelser Str. 4, Rohrbach, 93183, Kallmünz, Germany., Fischer C; Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany.; Institute of Geosciences, Friedrich Schiller University, Burgweg 11, 07749, Jena, Germany., Horchler P; Department Vegetation Studies, Landscape Management, German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068, Koblenz, Germany., Scholz M; Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany., Foeckler F; ÖKON Ltd. Ass. for Landscape Ecology, Limnology, and Environmental Planning, Hohenfelser Str. 4, Rohrbach, 93183, Kallmünz, Germany., Henle K; Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany.; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103, Leipzig, Germany. |
| Abstrakt: |
As the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods have increased over recent decades, more extreme biological responses are being reported, and there is widespread interest in attributing such responses to anthropogenic climate change. However, the formal detection and attribution of biological responses to climate change is associated with many challenges. We illustrate these challenges with data from the Elbe River floodplain, Germany. Using community turnover and stability indices, we show that responses in plant, carabid and mollusc communities are detectable following extreme events. Community composition and species dominance changed following the extreme flood and summer heatwave of 2002/2003 (all taxa); the 2006 flood and heatwave (molluscs); and after the recurring floods and heatwave of 2010 and the 2013 flood (plants). Nevertheless, our ability to attribute these responses to anthropogenic climate change is limited by high natural variability in climate and biological data; lack of long-term data and replication, and the effects of multiple events. Without better understanding of the mechanisms behind change and the interactions, feedbacks and potentially lagged responses, multiple-driver attribution is unlikely. We discuss whether formal detection and/or attribution is necessary and suggest ways in which understanding of biological responses to extreme events could progress. |
