Who's at Risk? A Prognostic Model for Severity Prediction in Pediatric Acute Pancreatitis.

Autor: Farrell PR; Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition., Hornung L; Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH., Farmer P; Pediatric Residency Program, Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters.; Department of Pediatrics, Eastern Virginia Medical School, Norfolk, VA., DesPain AW; Division of Emergency Medicine., Kim E; Division of Critical Care Medicine, Children's National Hospital, Washington, DC., Pearman R; Division of Emergency Medicine., Neway B; Division of Emergency Medicine., Serrette A; Division of Emergency Medicine, Cohen Children's Medical Center, New Hyde Park, NY., Sehgal S; Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, Children's National Hospital, Washington, DC., Heubi JE; Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition.; Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine., Lin TK; Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition.; Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine., Nathan JD; Division of Pediatric General and Thoracic Surgery, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center.; Department of Surgery, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH., Vitale DS; Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition.; Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine., Abu-El-Haija M; Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition.; Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine.
Jazyk: angličtina
Zdroj: Journal of pediatric gastroenterology and nutrition [J Pediatr Gastroenterol Nutr] 2020 Oct; Vol. 71 (4), pp. 536-542.
DOI: 10.1097/MPG.0000000000002807
Abstrakt: Objectives: The aim of the study was to validate and optimize a severity prediction model for acute pancreatitis (AP) and to examine blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level changes from admission as a severity predictor.
Study Design: Patients from 2 hospitals were included for the validation model (Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters and Children's National Hospital). Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters and Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center data were used for analysis of BUN at 24 to 48 hours.
Results: The validation cohort included 73 patients; 22 (30%) with either severe or moderately severe AP, combined into the all severe AP (SAP) group. Patients with SAP had higher BUN (P = 0.002) and lower albumin (P = 0.005). Admission BUN was confirmed as a significant predictor (P = 0.005) of SAP (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.86). Combining BUN (P = 0.005) and albumin (P = 0.004) resulted in better prediction for SAP (AUROC 0.83, 95% CI 0.72-0.94). A total of 176 AP patients were analyzed at 24-48 hours; 39 (22%) met criteria for SAP. Patients who developed SAP had a significantly higher BUN (P < 0.001) after 24 hours. Elevated BUN levels within 24 to 48 hours were independently predictive of developing SAP (AUROC: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.66-0.85). Patients who developed SAP had a significantly smaller percentage decrease in BUN from admission to 24 to 48 hours (P = 0.002).
Conclusion: We externally validated the prior model with admission BUN levels and further optimized it by incorporating albumin. We also found that persistent elevation of BUN is associated with development of SAP. Our model can be used to risk stratify patients with AP on admission and again at 24 to 48 hours.
Databáze: MEDLINE
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