Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of a novel virus from the outbreak epicentre. The case of COVID-19.

Autor:	Massad E; School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.; School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil., Amaku M; School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.; School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil., Wilder-Smith A; Department Public Health and Clinical, Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany.; Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, SE-901 85Umeå, Sweden.; Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK., Costa Dos Santos PC; School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.; UNIP - Universidade Paulista, Sao Paulo, Brazil., Struchiner CJ; School of Applied Mathematics, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil., Coutinho FAB; School of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Jazyk:	angličtina
Zdroj:	Epidemiology and infection [Epidemiol Infect] 2020 Jun 09; Vol. 148, pp. e109. Date of Electronic Publication: 2020 Jun 09.
DOI:	10.1017/S0950268820001223
Abstrakt:	We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regions by travellers. The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Although this paper focuses on the data from China, our methods can be adapted to calculate the risk of importation and subsequent outbreaks. We found an average R0 = 5.31 (ranging from 4.08 to 7.91) and a risk of spreading of 0.75 latent individuals per 1000 travellers. In addition, one infective traveller would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country with a probability of 23%.
Databáze:	MEDLINE
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